Erdogan's victory in the 2023 Turkish elections and America's loss of the bet
The New York Times: Easy Türkiye is the password behind the West's desire to defeat Erdogan
The American newspaper "The New York Times" said that dealing with "Turkey is easy" is the secret word behind the Western desire to defeat Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the parliamentary and presidential elections, which took place on Sunday and the results will be announced after a few hours.
She indicated that Erdogan's loss in the elections would cause relief in the West, and European leaders would be happy to deal with "easy Turkey", at a time when Russia might lose a diplomatic and economic partner.
Western diplomats are focusing their attention on the possibility of losing Erdoğan, whom polls place by a smaller margin than his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Officially, Western officials do not talk about their preferred candidate to avoid being accused of interfering in local politics, but European leaders, in addition to US President Joe Biden's administration, will express their joy if Erdogan loses the race, according to the newspaper.
As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said: "We all want an easy Turkey," as it is a strategic member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and under Erdogan it became a problematic partner for the European Union, as it abandoned Turkey's membership in it.
While European leaders silently support Erdoğan's defeat, they fear post-election turmoil, especially if Erdoğan loses by a narrow margin or goes to a second round in two weeks.
"It is a pivotal election," Bildt said, "what is at stake is democracy, and my fear is that the elections will lead to results in which the powers are divided between a strong presidency under Erdogan and a parliament under the leadership of an unstable opposition coalition," and "the risks of a high constitutional blockage."
Turkey has many bets regarding the election results. Under Erdogan, Turkey has turned into an indispensable trading partner and diplomatic mediator, and has become important with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
During his twenty years in power, Erdogan pursued a foreign policy of non-alignment that frustrated his supposed allies, and provided a diplomatic overture to Moscow, perhaps even more significant after the invasion of Ukraine.
By refusing to impose Western sanctions on Moscow, Erdogan helped undermine Western efforts to isolate the Kremlin and deny it funds to support its war effort.
Erdogan angered his allies by preventing Sweden from joining NATO, stressing that Stockholm would hand over a number of Kurdish refugees, especially the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist organization. As for NATO, a change of leadership in Turkey will open the door for Sweden to join the alliance, before its summit scheduled in the Lithuanian capital, Filonis, in July.
Not only did Erdogan refuse to join Western countries, impose sanctions on Russia, and open the way for Russian gas and oil, but Turkey has turned into a source of Russian imports that it needs, and a link to the global economy amid tightening Western sanctions. The Kremlin sees the Turkish president and his nationalist rhetoric as a kind of obstruction within NATO.